National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Aqua), Jaegersborg Allé 1, Charlottenlund Castle, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.
Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Jun 22;277(1689):1867-74. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.1906. Epub 2010 Feb 10.
Climate change will have major consequences for population dynamics and life histories of marine biota as it progresses in the twenty-first century. These impacts will differ in magnitude and direction for populations within individual marine species whose geographical ranges span large gradients in latitude and temperature. Here we use meta-analytical methods to investigate how recruitment (i.e. the number of new fish produced by spawners in a given year which subsequently grow and survive to become vulnerable to fishing gear) has reacted to temperature fluctuations, and in particular to extremes of temperature, in cod populations throughout the north Atlantic. Temperature has geographically explicit effects on cod recruitment. Impacts differ depending on whether populations are located in the upper (negative effects) or in the lower (positive effects) thermal range. The probabilities of successful year-classes in populations living in warm areas is on average 34 per cent higher in cold compared with warm seasons, whereas opposite patterns exist for populations living in cold areas. These results have implications for cod dynamics, distributions and phenologies under the influence of ocean warming, particularly related to not only changes in the mean temperature, but also its variability (e.g. frequency of exceptionally cold or warm seasons).
随着二十一世纪的气候变化，海洋生物的种群动态和生活史将受到重大影响。这些影响的大小和方向因地理分布范围跨越较大纬度和温度梯度的个别海洋物种的种群而异。在这里，我们使用元分析方法来研究鳕鱼种群的繁殖（即当年由产卵者产生的新鱼的数量，随后这些鱼生长并存活下来，容易受到渔具的影响）是如何对温度波动做出反应的，特别是对温度极值的反应。温度对鳕鱼繁殖具有明确的地理影响。影响因种群位于温度较高的区域（负面影响）还是温度较低的区域（正面影响）而有所不同。与温暖季节相比，生活在温暖地区的种群的成功年度的概率平均高出 34%，而生活在寒冷地区的种群则存在相反的模式。这些结果对海洋变暖影响下鳕鱼动态、分布和物候学具有重要意义，尤其是不仅与平均温度变化有关，而且还与温度变异性（例如，异常寒冷或温暖季节的频率）有关。
