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热点与冷点:马拉维农村地区孤儿患病率的家庭及村庄层面差异

Hotspots and Coldspots: Household and village-level variation in orphanhood prevalence in rural Malawi.

作者信息

Weinreb Alexander, Gerland Patrick, Fleming Peter

机构信息

Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Hebrew University. Jerusalem 91905, Israel.

出版信息

Demogr Res. 2008 Jul 15;19(32):1217. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.32.

Abstract

We explore the characteristics of households and villages in which orphans are resident in two areas of Malawi. We first review pertinent themes in qualitative data collected in our research sites. Then, using spatial analysis, we show how positive and negative clusters of orphans - which we term orphanhood "hotspots" and "coldspots" - can be found at the village and sub-village levels. In the third and longest section of the paper, and using multilevel analyses with both simple and complex variance structures, we evaluate the relationship between the presence of orphans and a range of individual, household and village-level characteristics, including households' spatial relationship to each other and to other local sites of significance. This series of analyses shows that the most important covariates of orphan presence are household size, wealth, and religious characteristics, with all measured simultaneously at both household and village-level. In addition, most of these have heterogenous effects across villages. We conclude by reviewing some difficulties in explaining causal mechanisms underlying these observed relationships, and discuss conceptual, theoretical and programmatic implications.

摘要

我们探究了马拉维两个地区孤儿所在家庭和村庄的特征。我们首先回顾了在研究地点收集的定性数据中的相关主题。然后,通过空间分析,我们展示了如何在村庄和次村庄层面找到孤儿的正、负聚集区——我们将其称为孤儿“热点”和“冷点”。在论文的第三部分也是最长的部分,我们使用具有简单和复杂方差结构的多层次分析,评估孤儿的存在与一系列个人、家庭和村庄层面特征之间的关系,包括家庭彼此之间以及与其他重要当地场所的空间关系。这一系列分析表明,孤儿存在的最重要协变量是家庭规模、财富和宗教特征,所有这些都是在家庭和村庄层面同时进行测量的。此外,其中大多数在不同村庄具有异质性影响。我们通过回顾解释这些观察到的关系背后因果机制的一些困难来得出结论,并讨论概念、理论和方案方面的影响。

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