Centre for Medical Statistics and Health Evaluation, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GS.
BMJ. 2010 Feb 15;340:c365. doi: 10.1136/bmj.c365.
OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of outcome reporting bias-the selection for publication of a subset of the original recorded outcome variables on the basis of the results-and its impact on Cochrane reviews. DESIGN: A nine point classification system for missing outcome data in randomised trials was developed and applied to the trials assessed in a large, unselected cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Researchers who conducted the trials were contacted and the reason sought for the non-reporting of data. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess the impact of outcome reporting bias on reviews that included a single meta-analysis of the review primary outcome. RESULTS: More than half (157/283 (55%)) the reviews did not include full data for the review primary outcome of interest from all eligible trials. The median amount of review outcome data missing for any reason was 10%, whereas 50% or more of the potential data were missing in 70 (25%) reviews. It was clear from the publications for 155 (6%) of the 2486 assessable trials that the researchers had measured and analysed the review primary outcome but did not report or only partially reported the results. For reports that did not mention the review primary outcome, our classification regarding the presence of outcome reporting bias was shown to have a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI 65% to 100%) and specificity of 80% (95% CI 69% to 90%) on the basis of responses from 62 trialists. A third of Cochrane reviews (96/283 (34%)) contained at least one trial with high suspicion of outcome reporting bias for the review primary outcome. In a sensitivity analysis undertaken for 81 reviews with a single meta-analysis of the primary outcome of interest, the treatment effect estimate was reduced by 20% or more in 19 (23%). Of the 42 meta-analyses with a statistically significant result only, eight (19%) became non-significant after adjustment for outcome reporting bias and 11 (26%) would have overestimated the treatment effect by 20% or more. CONCLUSIONS: Outcome reporting bias is an under-recognised problem that affects the conclusions in a substantial proportion of Cochrane reviews. Individuals conducting systematic reviews need to address explicitly the issue of missing outcome data for their review to be considered a reliable source of evidence. Extra care is required during data extraction, reviewers should identify when a trial reports that an outcome was measured but no results were reported or events observed, and contact with trialists should be encouraged.
目的:研究结局报告偏倚(即根据研究结果选择发表原始记录的部分结局变量)的发生率及其对 Cochrane 系统评价的影响。
设计:制定了一个用于随机试验中缺失结局数据的 9 分分类系统,并将其应用于大规模、未选择的 Cochrane 系统评价队列中的试验评估。联系了进行试验的研究人员,询问未报告数据的原因。进行了敏感性分析,以评估结局报告偏倚对纳入单个主要结局 meta 分析的综述的影响。
结果:283 篇综述中,超过一半(157/283,55%)未纳入所有合格试验的综述主要结局的全部数据。由于任何原因缺失的综述结局数据中位数为 10%,但有 70 篇(25%)综述缺失了 50%或更多的潜在数据。在 2486 篇可评估试验中的 155 篇(6%)试验出版物中,研究人员已经测量和分析了综述主要结局,但未报告或仅部分报告了结果。对于未提及综述主要结局的报告,我们的分类系统显示,基于 62 位试验人员的回复,其结局报告偏倚的存在的敏感性为 88%(95%CI,65%100%),特异性为 80%(95%CI,69%90%)。三分之一的 Cochrane 综述(96/283,34%)至少有一项对综述主要结局存在高度结局报告偏倚的试验。在对 81 篇主要结局有单个 meta 分析的综述进行的敏感性分析中,19 篇(23%)的治疗效果估计值减少了 20%或更多。在仅具有统计学意义的 42 项 meta 分析中,8 项(19%)在调整结局报告偏倚后变得无统计学意义,11 项(26%)的治疗效果估计值会增加 20%或更多。
结论:结局报告偏倚是一个被低估的问题,它影响了相当一部分 Cochrane 综述的结论。进行系统评价的个人需要明确解决综述中缺失结局数据的问题,以使其成为可靠的证据来源。在数据提取过程中需要格外小心,综述人员应确定何时试验报告已测量结局但未报告结果或未观察到事件,并鼓励与试验人员联系。
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