West R Webster, Nitcheva Daniela K, Piegorsch Walter W
Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
Environ Ecol Stat. 2009 Mar 1;16(1):63-73. doi: 10.1007/s10651-007-0073-5.
A primary objective in quantitative risk assessment is the characterization of risk which is defined to be the likelihood of an adverse effect caused by an environmental toxin or chemcial agent. In modern risk-benchmark analysis, attention centers on the "benchmark dose" at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved, with a lower confidence limits on this dose being of primary interest. In practice, a range of benchmark risks may be under study, so that the individual lower confidence limits on benchmark dose must be corrected for simultaneity in order to maintain a specified overall level of confidence. For the case of quantal data, simultaneous methods have been constructed that appeal to the large sample normality of parameter estimates. The suitability of these methods for use with small sample sizes will be considered. A new bootstrap technique is proposed as an alternative to the large sample methodology. This technique is evaluated via a simulation study and examples from environmental toxicology.
定量风险评估的一个主要目标是对风险进行特征描述,风险被定义为环境毒素或化学剂导致不良反应的可能性。在现代风险基准分析中,关注点集中在达到固定风险基准水平时的“基准剂量”,对该剂量的较低置信限最为重要。实际上,可能会研究一系列基准风险,因此必须对基准剂量的各个较低置信限进行同时性校正,以维持特定的总体置信水平。对于定性数据的情况,已经构建了基于参数估计的大样本正态性的同时性方法。将考虑这些方法在小样本量情况下的适用性。提出了一种新的自助法技术作为大样本方法的替代方法。通过模拟研究和环境毒理学实例对该技术进行了评估。