Department of Internal Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA.
AJR Am J Roentgenol. 2010 Mar;194(3):697-703. doi: 10.2214/AJR.09.2437.
The purpose of this study was to present an updated report on the radiologist surplus and shortage situation using a recently developed improved measure-namely, the extent to which radiologists desire less or more work if their income were to change by the same percentage as their workload.
Non-individually identifiable data from the American College of Radiology's (ACR's) 2007 Survey of Diagnostic Radiologists were used. Responses were weighted to be representative of all posttraining professionally active radiologists in the United States. Information is presented for all radiologists and according to such factors as type and size of practice, radiologist subspecialty, and geographic region. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify the probable causal links between desired workload change and characteristics of radiologists and the practices where they work. Comparisons were made with ACR's similar 2003 Survey of Radiologists.
The net average workload change sought in 2007 was an approximately 3% increase. In 2003, radiologists on average did not desire a statistically significant change in workload. Regression analysis for 2007 showed a pattern of relative shortages and surpluses that was generally, but not entirely, different from that found in 2003.
The overall balance between the demand and the supply of radiologists shifted toward a surplus between 2003 and 2007. According to our measure, we judge there was a close balance in 2003, but a 3% surplus in 2007. The employment market seems generally, but not universally, to self-correct relative shortages and surpluses in individual geographic areas and subspecialties within a few years.
本研究旨在利用最近开发的改良衡量标准，即如果放射科医生的收入变化与工作量变化的百分比相同，他们希望工作增加或减少的程度，报告放射科医生过剩和短缺的最新情况。
使用美国放射学院（ACR）2007 年诊断放射科医生调查的非个人可识别数据。对答复进行加权处理，以代表美国所有接受培训后从事专业放射工作的放射科医生。按实践类型和规模、放射科医生亚专业和地理位置提供信息。多变量回归分析用于确定放射科医生和他们工作的实践的特征与期望工作量变化之间可能存在的因果联系。与 ACR 类似的 2003 年放射科医生调查进行了比较。
2007 年寻求的净平均工作量变化约为 3%。2003 年，放射科医生平均不希望工作量发生统计学上显著变化。2007 年的回归分析显示出相对短缺和过剩的模式，总体上与 2003 年的模式不同，但并非完全不同。
2003 年至 2007 年间，放射科医生的需求和供应之间的总体平衡向过剩方向转变。根据我们的衡量标准，我们认为 2003 年的平衡接近，但 2007 年有 3%的过剩。就业市场似乎在几年内普遍，但不是普遍地，在个别地理区域和亚专业内自我纠正相对短缺和过剩。
