Unit of Upgrading of Fishery and Aquaculture Products (U-VPPA), Portuguese Institute of Sea and Fisheries Research (IPIMAR), National Institute of Biological Resources (INRB), Avenida de Brasília 1449-006 Lisbon, Portugal.
Risk Anal. 2010 Jun;30(6):952-61. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01374.x. Epub 2010 Feb 23.
The intake of Cd, methyl-Hg, and Pb through consumption of black scabbardfish (BSF) (Aphanopus carbo) in Portugal as well as the associated probability of exceeding the respective provisional tolerable weekly intakes (PTWIs) was estimated. For this purpose, the contamination levels of heavy metals in this fish species were combined with constructed consumption scenarios or with a hypothesized consumption distribution. Whereas Cd and Pb posed no serious risk, the consumption of at least one portion of BSF per month as well as the hypothetical study in the Portuguese population produced nonnegligible probabilities of surpassing the PTWI for Me-Hg. Risk assessment for Portuguese consumers revealed a higher risk regarding Me-Hg, 1.19% and 1.81% with the plug-in (PI) and the tail estimation (TE) estimators, respectively. On the other hand, the risk for Cd and Pb was less than 1 in 100,000. TE was more realistic and accurate for Cd and Pb. Concerning Me-Hg, TE and PI estimators produced similar results. Furthermore, the limitations of a deterministic approach were shown.
评估了葡萄牙人通过食用黑刀鱼（Aphanopus carbo）摄入 Cd、甲基汞（Me-Hg）和 Pb 的情况，以及超过各自暂定每周耐受摄入量（PTWI）的概率。为此，将该鱼类物种中重金属的污染水平与构建的消费情景或假设的消费分布相结合。虽然 Cd 和 Pb 没有造成严重风险，但每月至少食用一份黑刀鱼，以及在葡萄牙人群中进行的假设性研究，都产生了超过 Me-Hg 的 PTWI 的不可忽视的概率。对葡萄牙消费者的风险评估显示，Me-Hg 的风险更高，插补（PI）和尾部估计（TE）估计器的风险分别为 1.19%和 1.81%。另一方面，Cd 和 Pb 的风险小于 1/100000。TE 对 Cd 和 Pb 更现实和准确。关于 Me-Hg，TE 和 PI 估计器产生了相似的结果。此外，还展示了确定性方法的局限性。
