School of Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, PR China.
Forensic Sci Int. 2010 May 20;198(1-3):134-7. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2010.02.006. Epub 2010 Mar 6.
There are many uncertain factors in traffic accidents, it is necessary to study the influence of these uncertain factors to improve the accuracy and confidence of accident reconstruction results. It is difficult to evaluate the uncertainty of calculation results if the expression of the reconstruction model is implicit and/or the distributions of the independent variables are unknown. Based on interval mathematics, convex models and design of experiment, two non-probabilistic methods were proposed. These two methods are efficient under conditions where existing uncertainty analysis methods can hardly work because the accident reconstruction model is implicit and/or the distributions of independent variables are unknown; and parameter sensitivity can be obtained from them too. An accident case is investigated by the methods proposed in the paper. Results show that the convex models method is the most conservative method, and the solution of interval analysis method is very close to the other methods. These two methods are a beneficial supplement to the existing uncertainty analysis methods.
交通事故存在许多不确定因素，有必要研究这些不确定因素的影响，以提高事故重建结果的准确性和置信度。如果重建模型的表达式是隐式的，或者独立变量的分布是未知的，那么很难评估计算结果的不确定性。基于区间数学、凸模型和实验设计，提出了两种非概率方法。在现有的不确定性分析方法难以应用的情况下，这两种方法非常有效，因为事故重建模型是隐式的，或者独立变量的分布是未知的；并且可以从中获得参数敏感性。本文提出的方法对一个事故案例进行了研究。结果表明，凸模型方法是最保守的方法，区间分析方法的解与其他方法非常接近。这两种方法是对现有不确定性分析方法的有益补充。
