School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, 410004, China.
Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle, Changsha, 410004, Hunan Province, China.
Int J Legal Med. 2019 Jul;133(4):1089-1106. doi: 10.1007/s00414-018-1885-6. Epub 2018 Jul 5.
Uncertainty analysis is an effective methodology to improve the reliability of an accident reconstruction result. Many existing methods can be employed in this field, which can confuse a practicing engineer who does not know these methods well. To make the selection easier, a case-oriented approach was proposed based on the evidence theory. Users only need to input uncertain traces and a selected accident reconstruction model to calculate the uncertainty of reconstructed results using the proposed approach. Three basic steps of the case-oriented approach are as follows: first, all types of input traces should be transformed into their evidence form; then, focal elements of the reconstructed result and their corresponding basic probability assignment (BPA) need to be calculated; finally, the belief function (Bel) and plausibility function (Pl) of the reconstructed results are calculated. Three common conditions, which are accidents with all interval traces, accidents with all probabilistic traces, and accidents with interval and probabilistic traces, were discussed based on the basic steps of the case-oriented approach. Furthermore, methods for how to transform different traces to their evidence form, how to calculate the interval of the response efficiently, and how to fuse high conflict evidence were presented. Numerical cases showed that the approach worked well in all conditions. Finally, a vehicle collisions accident case was presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach in practice.
不确定性分析是提高事故重建结果可靠性的有效方法。许多现有的方法可用于该领域，这可能会使不太熟悉这些方法的实践工程师感到困惑。为了便于选择，提出了一种基于证据理论的面向案例的方法。用户只需输入不确定的痕迹和选择的事故重建模型，即可使用所提出的方法计算重建结果的不确定性。面向案例的方法的三个基本步骤如下：首先，将所有类型的输入痕迹转换为其证据形式；然后，计算重建结果的焦点元素及其相应的基本概率分配 (BPA)；最后，计算重建结果的置信函数 (Bel) 和似然函数 (Pl)。基于面向案例的方法的基本步骤，讨论了三种常见情况，即所有区间痕迹的事故、所有概率痕迹的事故以及区间和概率痕迹的事故。此外，还提出了如何将不同的痕迹转换为其证据形式、如何有效地计算响应的区间以及如何融合高冲突证据的方法。数值案例表明，该方法在所有情况下均有效。最后，提出了一个车辆碰撞事故案例，以演示所提出的方法在实际中的应用。
