Carneiro Pedro, Heckman James J, Vytlacil Edward
Department of Economics University College London IFS CeMMAP Gower Street London WC1E 6BT United Kingdom
Econometrica. 2010 Jan 1;78(1):377-394. doi: 10.3982/ECTA7089.
This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.
本文开发了评估边际政策变化的方法。我们描述了边际政策变化的效果如何取决于政策变化的方向，并表明边际政策效果从根本上来说比传统的治疗参数更容易识别和估计。我们建立了边际政策效果与处于参与治疗和不参与治疗无差异边缘的人的治疗平均效果之间的联系，并利用这种联系来分析这两个参数。我们应用我们的分析来估计学费的边际变化对上大学回报的影响。
