Initial stress responses in relation to outcome after three decades.

The present study aimed at predicting posttraumatic stress 5 and 27 years after the North Sea oil rig disaster. The predictions were based on the initial levels of stress responses and the early recovery as reported in 1980. The Posttraumatic Stress Scale (PTSS) was used at 3 measure points. From 1980, data from 69 survivors were used in latent growth modeling. Follow-up studies included 65 survivors and 85 matched unexposed oil-rig workers in 1985; and 47 and 62 in 2007. In 1985, the survivors had higher total PTSS scores and more frequent endorsements on most single PTSS-items than the comparison group. In 2007, a few single items remained different. The initial levels of stress responses and the early recovery rate predicted the long-term outcomes after 5 and 27 years. Initial screenings may be helpful in the early detection of posttraumatic stress in the very long-term perspective.