Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2010 Mar;16(1):1-15. doi: 10.1037/a0018758.
The output of binary cuing systems, such as alerts or alarms, depends on the threshold setting-a parameter that is often user-adjustable. However, it is unknown if users are able to adequately adjust thresholds and what information may help them to do so. Two experiments tested threshold settings for a binary classification task based on binary cues. During the task, participants decided whether a product was intact or faulty. Experimental conditions differed in the information participants received: all participants were informed about a product's fault probability and the payoffs associated with decision outcomes; one third also received information regarding conditional probabilities for a fault when the system indicated or did not indicate the existence of one (predictive values); and another third received information about conditional probabilities for the system indicating a fault, in the instance of the existence or lack thereof, of an actual fault (diagnostic values). Threshold settings in all experimental groups were nonoptimal, with settings closest to the optimum with predictive-values information. Results corresponded with a model describing threshold settings as a function of the conditional probabilities for the different outcomes. From a practical perspective, results indicate that predictive-values information best supports decisions about threshold settings. Consequently, for users to adjust thresholds, they should receive information about predictive-values, provided that such values can be computed.
二进制提示系统的输出，如警报或警示，取决于阈值设置——这是一个经常可以由用户调整的参数。然而，尚不清楚用户是否能够充分调整阈值，以及哪些信息可以帮助他们进行调整。两项实验测试了基于二进制提示的二进制分类任务的阈值设置。在任务中，参与者决定一个产品是否完好或有故障。实验条件在参与者接收到的信息上有所不同：所有参与者都收到了关于产品故障概率和决策结果相关收益的信息；三分之一的参与者还收到了有关系统指示或不指示存在故障时故障的条件概率的信息（预测值）；另外三分之一的参与者收到了有关系统指示故障的条件概率的信息，在存在或不存在实际故障的情况下（诊断值）。所有实验组的阈值设置都不理想，最接近最佳设置的是具有预测值信息的设置。结果与一个模型相符，该模型将阈值设置描述为不同结果的条件概率的函数。从实际的角度来看，结果表明预测值信息最能支持关于阈值设置的决策。因此，为了让用户调整阈值，他们应该收到有关预测值的信息，前提是可以计算出这些值。
