Thorson J, Hägg U
Department of Orthodontics, Faculty of Odontology, Malmö, Sweden.
Swed Dent J. 1991;15(1):15-22.
The study was designed to investigate the accuracy and precision of the development of the third mandibular molar, determined on panoramic x-rays, as an indicator of chronological age- a method which is used in Sweden to estimate chronological age in certain young foreign individuals with uncertain birth records. Accuracy test: The mean difference between the estimated and true chronological age was determined in a sample of 372 14.5-24.5-year-old subjects. The data were arranged in subgroups according to sex and age. The accuracy test showed a systematic underestimation of age, increasing with age in both sexes. The 95 per cent confidence interval of the difference between estimated and true chronological age was large, about +/- 4.5 years in girls and +/- 2.8 years in boys. The association between dental age and chronological age, expressed in correlation coefficients, was poor. Precision test: The intra-examiner error was low but the 95 per cent confidence interval of the difference was large, +/- 0.8 years. The dental development of the third mandibular molar should not be used for estimation of chronological age in individual subjects, due to its very low accuracy.
本研究旨在调查通过全景X线片确定的下颌第三磨牙发育情况作为实足年龄指标的准确性和精确性。在瑞典，这种方法用于估计某些出生记录不确定的外国年轻人的实足年龄。准确性测试：在372名年龄在14.5至24.5岁的受试者样本中，确定估计实足年龄与真实实足年龄之间的平均差异。数据按性别和年龄分为亚组。准确性测试显示年龄存在系统性低估，且在两性中均随年龄增加。估计实足年龄与真实实足年龄之间差异的95%置信区间很大，女孩约为±4.5岁，男孩约为±2.8岁。用相关系数表示的牙龄与实足年龄之间的关联较差。精确性测试：检查者内部误差较低，但差异的95%置信区间很大，为±0.8岁。由于其准确性很低，下颌第三磨牙的牙发育情况不应被用于个体受试者实足年龄的估计。
