Institute for Aging Research, Hebrew SeniorLife, 1200 Centre Street, Boston, MA 02131-1097, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2010 May 1;171(9):1031-6. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq024. Epub 2010 Apr 1.
Tracking falls among elders is challenging. In this reliability study, which took place between October 2007 and February 2008, the authors compared participants' daily recordings of falls on calendars with a telephone survey of recall of falls over the previous 3 months within the population-based MOBILIZE Boston Study cohort, a cohort of 765 elders. From the cohort, 218 participants were randomly selected. Falls were tracked prospectively on daily calendars (mailed back monthly). Telephone recalls of falls over the previous 3 months were conducted in January and February 2008. Agreement, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated to compare the occurrence of falls as determined by 3-month recall with falls recorded by daily calendar (gold standard) during the same 3-month period. Results showed good agreement between recall and calendars: 27 persons reported a fall by both methods. However, while the 3-month recall correctly classified persons who did not fall (164 persons by both methods), it missed 25% of participants who fell (of 36 participants with a calendar-reported fall, 9 did not report a fall by telephone recall). Kappa was 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 0.80), sensitivity was 75%, and specificity was 96%. Retrospective 3-month recall of falls resulted in underreporting of falls by as much as 25% compared with daily calendars. Calendars should be considered the preferred method of ascertaining falls in longitudinal studies.
跟踪老年人的跌倒情况具有挑战性。在这项可靠性研究中,作者比较了参与者在日历上记录的每日跌倒情况与电话调查在过去 3 个月内回忆跌倒的情况,该研究于 2007 年 10 月至 2008 年 2 月进行,研究对象为基于人群的波士顿 Mobilize 研究队列中的 765 名老年人。从队列中随机选择了 218 名参与者。每日日历(每月邮寄一次)前瞻性跟踪跌倒情况。2008 年 1 月和 2 月进行了过去 3 个月的跌倒电话回忆。为了比较 3 个月电话回忆确定的跌倒与同期 3 个月内每日日历记录的跌倒(金标准)的发生情况,计算了一致性、敏感性和特异性。结果显示,回忆和日历之间具有良好的一致性:有 27 人通过两种方法报告了跌倒。然而,虽然 3 个月的电话回忆正确地将未跌倒的人分类(通过两种方法,有 164 人未跌倒),但它错过了 25%的跌倒参与者(在 36 名通过日历报告跌倒的参与者中,有 9 名未通过电话回忆报告跌倒)。kappa 值为 0.74(95%置信区间:0.68,0.80),敏感性为 75%,特异性为 96%。与每日日历相比,3 个月的回溯性跌倒回忆导致跌倒的漏报率高达 25%。在纵向研究中,应考虑使用日历来确定跌倒情况。