Department of Biology, The University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131-0001, USA.
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2010 Aug;85(3):669-83. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2010.00133.x. Epub 2010 Apr 1.
Geographic and cross-national variation in the frequency of intrastate armed conflict and civil war is a subject of great interest. Previous theory on this variation has focused on the influence on human behaviour of climate, resource competition, national wealth, and cultural characteristics. We present the parasite-stress model of intrastate conflict, which unites previous work on the correlates of intrastate conflict by linking frequency of the outbreak of such conflict, including civil war, to the intensity of infectious disease across countries of the world. High intensity of infectious disease leads to the emergence of xenophobic and ethnocentric cultural norms. These cultures suffer greater poverty and deprivation due to the morbidity and mortality caused by disease, and as a result of decreased investment in public health and welfare. Resource competition among xenophobic and ethnocentric groups within a nation leads to increased frequency of civil war. We present support for the parasite-stress model with regression analyses. We find support for a direct effect of infectious disease on intrastate armed conflict, and support for an indirect effect of infectious disease on the incidence of civil war via its negative effect on national wealth. We consider the entanglements of feedback of conflict into further reduced wealth and increased incidence of disease, and discuss implications for international warfare and global patterns of wealth and imperialism.
国内武装冲突和内战的发生频率在地理和跨国层面上存在差异，这是一个备受关注的问题。以往关于这种差异的理论主要集中在气候、资源竞争、国家财富和文化特征对人类行为的影响上。我们提出了国内冲突的寄生虫压力模型，该模型通过将此类冲突（包括内战）的爆发频率与世界各国传染病的强度联系起来，将以往关于国内冲突相关因素的研究工作结合在一起。传染病的高强度会导致仇外和种族中心主义文化规范的出现。这些文化由于疾病的发病率和死亡率以及公共卫生和福利投资减少而遭受更大的贫困和剥夺。一个国家内部的仇外和种族中心主义群体之间的资源竞争导致内战的频率增加。我们通过回归分析为寄生虫压力模型提供了支持。我们发现传染病对国内武装冲突有直接影响，并且传染病通过对国家财富产生负面影响，对内战的发生也有间接影响。我们考虑到冲突反馈会进一步减少财富和增加疾病的发生率，并讨论了这对国际战争和全球财富与帝国主义模式的影响。
