Institute of Legal Medicine, University Hospital Jena, Fürstengraben 23, 07740 Jena, Germany.
Int J Legal Med. 2011 Jul;125(4):503-17. doi: 10.1007/s00414-010-0453-5. Epub 2010 Apr 17.
Temperature-based methods represent essential tools in forensic death time determination. Empirical double exponential models have gained wide acceptance because they are highly flexible and simple to handle. The most established model commonly used in forensic practice was developed by Henssge. It contains three independent variables: the body mass, the environmental temperature, and the initial body core temperature. The present study investigates the influence of variations in the input data (environmental temperature, initial body core temperature, core temperature, time) on the standard deviation of the model-based estimates of the time since death. Two different approaches were used for calculating the standard deviation: the law of error propagation and the Monte Carlo method. Errors in environmental temperature measurements as well as deviations of the initial rectal temperature were identified as major sources of inaccuracies in model based death time estimation.
基于温度的方法是法医学死亡时间推断的重要工具。经验双指数模型因其具有高度的灵活性和易于处理而被广泛接受。在法医学实践中最常用的模型是由 Henssge 开发的，它包含三个独立变量：体重、环境温度和初始体核温度。本研究调查了输入数据（环境温度、初始体核温度、核心温度、时间）变化对基于模型的死亡时间估计标准偏差的影响。使用了两种不同的方法来计算标准偏差：误差传播定律和蒙特卡罗方法。环境温度测量误差以及初始直肠温度偏差被确定为基于模型的死亡时间估计不准确的主要原因。
