Department of Research, Eindhoven Cancer Registry, Comprehensive Cancer Centre South, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
J Clin Oncol. 2010 May 20;28(15):2520-8. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2009.25.9697. Epub 2010 Apr 20.
When cancer survivors wish to receive accurate information on their current prognosis during follow-up, conditional 5-year relative survival may be most suitable. We have estimated conditional 5-year relative survival for 13 cancers using a large European database-European Network for Indicators on Cancer (EUNICE)-of 10 dedicated long-standing cancer registries across Europe.
Patients age 15 years and older diagnosed between 1985 and 2004 were included. Conditional 5-year relative survival for each age group was computed for every additional year survived up to 10 years. Period analysis with follow-up period 2000 to 2004 was used.
All patients with cutaneous melanoma or colorectal, endometrial, or testis cancer and younger patients with stomach, glottis, cervix, ovary, or thyroid cancer or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma exhibited hardly any excess mortality (conditional 5-year relative survival > 95%) given that they were alive at a defined time point within 10 years of initial diagnosis. However, patients with supraglottis, lung, breast, and kidney cancer, as well as older patients with most cancers exhibited substantial excess mortality (conditional 5-year relative survival < 90%). Initial differences in relative survival at diagnosis between age groups largely disappeared with time since initial diagnosis for melanoma, or stomach, colorectal, corpus uteri, or testicular cancer but persisted for patients diagnosed with other tumors. Differences between stage groups became smaller over time or disappeared.
Conditional relative survival shows clinically relevant variations according to time since diagnosis, type of cancer, and age, and can help serve as a guide for cancer survivors in planning for their future and for doctors in planning schedules for surveillance.
当癌症幸存者在随访期间希望获得关于其当前预后的准确信息时，条件性 5 年相对生存率可能是最合适的。我们使用欧洲 10 个长期癌症登记处组成的大型欧洲数据库——欧洲癌症指标网络（EUNICE），对 13 种癌症的条件性 5 年相对生存率进行了估计。
纳入年龄在 15 岁及以上，于 1985 年至 2004 年间确诊的患者。对于每一个存活额外的年份，计算每个年龄组的条件性 5 年相对生存率，随访时间截至 2004 年。使用 2000 年至 2004 年的期间分析。
所有患有皮肤黑色素瘤或结直肠癌、子宫内膜癌或睾丸癌的患者，以及年龄较小的患有胃癌、声门癌、宫颈癌、卵巢癌或甲状腺癌或非霍奇金淋巴瘤的患者，如果在初始诊断后 10 年内的某个特定时间点存活，其死亡风险几乎没有增加（条件性 5 年相对生存率>95%）。然而，患有喉上、肺、乳腺和肾的癌症以及年龄较大的大多数癌症患者的死亡风险显著增加（条件性 5 年相对生存率<90%）。在诊断时，年龄组之间的相对生存率初始差异在时间上随着时间的推移而消失，对于黑色素瘤、胃、结直肠、子宫体或睾丸癌，但对于其他肿瘤患者则持续存在。不同分期组之间的差异随着时间的推移而缩小或消失。
条件相对生存率根据诊断后时间、癌症类型和年龄而呈现出具有临床意义的变化，可帮助癌症幸存者规划未来，并为医生规划监测计划提供指导。
