Department of Psychology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1876, USA.
Memory. 2010 Apr;18(3):351-62. doi: 10.1080/09658211003662755.
The current study examined predictions of memory performance as a function of the amount of information to be remembered. In four experiments participants studied and made judgements of learning (JOLs) for long or short lists of words. Results demonstrated that participants provided lower JOLs for long compared with short lists. However, whereas JOLs for short lists strongly corresponded with memory performance, participants' JOLs were consistently overconfident for long lists. Participants were unable to remedy this overconfidence for long lists even when provided information about the list length conditions or warned that a long list of words is difficult to learn. Only when given a prior list learning experience were JOLs for a long list consistent with memory performance. These data indicate that predictions of memory performance are sensitive to the amount of material TBR. However, predictions only correspond with the amount of information to-be-remembered under limited circumstances, providing support for frameworks which suggest that memory predictions are inferential in nature.
当前的研究考察了记忆表现的预测，其依据是需要记住的信息量。在四项实验中，参与者研究并对长列表或短列表的单词进行学习判断（JOL）。结果表明，与短列表相比，参与者对长列表的 JOL 较低。然而，尽管短列表的 JOL 与记忆表现强烈相关，但参与者对长列表的 JOL 始终过于自信。即使向参与者提供有关列表长度条件的信息或警告他们长列表的单词很难学习，他们也无法纠正这种对长列表的过度自信。只有在他们有之前的列表学习经验时，对长列表的 JOL 才与记忆表现一致。这些数据表明，记忆表现的预测对 TBR 的信息量敏感。但是，预测只有在有限的情况下才与要记住的信息量相对应，这为那些认为记忆预测本质上是推断性的框架提供了支持。
