Risk Analytica Research, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Pediatr Crit Care Med. 2011 Mar;12(2):e51-7. doi: 10.1097/PCC.0b013e3181e2a4fe.
To investigate the possibility of pediatric intensive care unit shortfalls, using pandemic models for a range of attack rates and durations. The emergence of the swine origin pH1N1 virus has led to concerns about shortfalls in our ability to provide pediatric ventilation and critical care support.
Modeling of pediatric intensive care demand based on pH1N1 predictions using simulation techniques.
Simulation laboratory.
None.
None.
Data collected during the first wave of the pH1N1 in children in Canada were applied to several second wave pandemic models to explore potential pediatric intensive care unit ventilatory demands for Canada and to investigate the impact of vaccination upon these demands. In almost all cases studied, even for relatively low attack rates of 15%, significant pediatric intensive care unit shortages would be expected to occur. Vaccination strategies targeting 50% of the population significantly reduced demand, but shortages may still be expected. Although shortfalls can occur in all provinces, Ontario and British Columbia may experience the greatest supply-demand difference, even at low attack rates.
Reducing the attack rate among children, whether through vaccination or additional measures, such as social distancing, will be critical to ensure sufficient pediatric intensive care unit capacity for continued pediatric care.
利用大流行模型研究儿科重症监护病房（PICU）资源短缺的可能性，这些模型考虑了一系列的发病率和持续时间。猪源 H1N1 病毒的出现引发了人们对我们提供小儿通气和重症监护支持能力的担忧。
使用仿真技术，根据 H1N1 预测结果对儿科重症监护需求进行建模。
仿真实验室。
无。
无。
将加拿大儿童中 H1N1 第一波期间收集的数据应用于几种第二波大流行模型，以探讨加拿大儿科重症监护病房通气需求的潜在情况，并研究疫苗接种对这些需求的影响。在所研究的几乎所有情况下，即使发病率相对较低（15%），预计也会出现显著的儿科重症监护病房资源短缺。针对 50%人口的疫苗接种策略可显著降低需求，但仍可能出现短缺。尽管所有省份都可能出现短缺，但安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省即使在发病率较低的情况下，也可能面临最大的供需差距。
无论是通过疫苗接种还是采取社交隔离等其他措施来降低儿童的发病率，对于确保有足够的儿科重症监护病房容量来持续提供儿科护理至关重要。
