Quantitative Decisions, 1235 Wendover Road, Rosemont, PA 19010, USA.
Risk Anal. 2010 Mar;30(3):371-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01361.x.
The distinction between ignorance about a parameter and knowing only a probability distribution for that parameter is of fundamental importance in risk assessment. Brief dialogs between a hypothetical decisionmaker and a risk assessor illustrate this point, showing that the distinction has real consequences. These dialogs are followed by a short exposition that places risk analysis in a decision-theoretic framework, describes the important elements of that framework, and uses these to shed light on Terje Aven's criticism of nonprobabilistic purely "objective" methods. Suggestions are offered concerning a more effective approach to evaluating those methods.
在风险评估中，对参数的无知与仅知道该参数的概率分布之间的区别至关重要。通过假设决策者和风险评估人员之间的简短对话来说明这一点，表明这种区别具有实际后果。这些对话之后是一个简短的阐述，将风险分析置于决策理论框架中，描述了该框架的重要要素，并利用这些要素来阐明 Terje Aven 对非概率性纯“客观”方法的批评。就评估这些方法提出了更有效的方法。
