Risk Anal. 2010 Mar;30(3):421-31. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01344.x. Epub 2010 Feb 2.
This article proposes an intertemporal risk-value (IRV) model that integrates probability-time tradeoff, time-value tradeoff, and risk-value tradeoff into one unified framework. We obtain a general probability-time tradeoff, which yields a formal representation form to reflect the psychological distance of a decisionmaker in evaluating a temporal lottery. This intuition of probability-time tradeoff is supported by robust empirical findings as well as by psychological theory. Through an explicit formalization of probability-time tradeoff, an IRV model taking into account three fundamental dimensions, namely, value, probability, and time, is established. The object of evaluation in our framework is a complex lottery. We also give some insights into the structure of the IRV model using a wildcatter problem.
本文提出了一种跨期风险价值（IRV）模型，将概率-时间权衡、时间-价值权衡和风险-价值权衡整合到一个统一的框架中。我们得到了一个通用的概率-时间权衡，它提供了一个正式的表示形式，以反映决策者在评估时间彩票时的心理距离。这种概率-时间权衡的直觉得到了强有力的经验发现和心理理论的支持。通过对概率-时间权衡的明确形式化，建立了一个考虑价值、概率和时间三个基本维度的 IRV 模型。我们框架中的评价对象是一个复杂的彩票。我们还通过一个勘探者问题给出了对 IRV 模型结构的一些见解。
