Research Department of Reproductive Health, Institute of Women's Health, UCL, London, UK.
J Public Health (Oxf). 2010 Jun;32(2):150-6. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdq038.
Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.
气候变化被描述为 21 世纪最大的全球健康威胁。预计到 2050 年，世界人口将达到 91 亿，其中大部分增长将出现在发展中国家。虽然气候变化的主要原因是发达国家的高消费，但发展中国家的人民将受到最大的影响。气候变化和人口可以通过适应（减少对气候变化不利影响的脆弱性）联系起来，更具争议的是，通过缓解（减少导致气候变化的温室气体）联系起来。迄今为止，低收入、高生育率国家对全球碳排放的贡献微乎其微，但随着它们需要减少贫困而实现经济发展，这种贡献正在增加。人口快速增长危及人类发展、基本服务的提供和消除贫困，并削弱贫困社区适应气候变化的能力。可能会发生大规模人口迁移以应对气候变化，这应被视为对气候变化影响的合理反应。将人口动态与气候变化联系起来是一个敏感的问题，但尊重和保护人权的计划生育方案可以带来广泛的好处。人口动态尚未系统地纳入气候变化科学。人口增长、迁移、城市化、老龄化和家庭构成对缓解和适应方案的贡献需要紧急调查。
