School of Public Health, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, Shandong, 264003, PR China.
Zhangdian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong, 255000, PR China.
BMC Public Health. 2024 Nov 8;24(1):3095. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20599-2.
Limited studies examined the interaction effects between summer heat exposure and economic development on the settlement intention, especially for the floating population. Binary logistic regression model was used to examine the association of summer temperature, per capita GRDP (PGRDP), summer temperature × PGRDP with settlement intention. Additive interaction term for summer temperature and PGRDP level was used to test the interactive effects. This study indicates that summer heat exposure will decrease the settlement intention of migrants (OR:1.386, 95% CI: 1.35-1.423), while PGRDP will increase settlement intention (OR: 0.893, 95% CI: 0.870-0.917). There is a negative interaction between summer temperature and PGRDP in the additive model. To a certain extent, summer heat exposure can weaken the attractiveness of economic development for migrants to settle down, they prefer to settle in cities with favorable temperatures and high levels of economic development. Stratified analyses illustrated that summer heat exposure showed lower settlement intention among female, the elderly, engaged in agriculture and industry and living in central China. The government should take measures about mitigation, adaptation and balancing economic development and climate change to reduce the adverse impacts of summer heat, and pay more attention to vulnerable groups and backward regions.
有限的研究考察了夏季热暴露与经济发展对定居意愿的交互作用，特别是对于流动人口。采用二元逻辑回归模型来检验夏季温度、人均 GDP（PGRDP）、夏季温度与 PGRDP 与定居意愿之间的关联。夏季温度和 PGRDP 水平的相加交互项用于检验交互作用。本研究表明，夏季热暴露会降低移民的定居意愿（OR：1.386，95%CI：1.35-1.423），而 PGRDP 会增加定居意愿（OR：0.893，95%CI：0.870-0.917）。在相加模型中，夏季温度和 PGRDP 之间存在负交互作用。在一定程度上，夏季热暴露会削弱经济发展对移民定居的吸引力，他们更愿意在气温适宜、经济发展水平较高的城市定居。分层分析表明，女性、老年人、从事农业和工业以及居住在中部地区的人夏季热暴露表现出较低的定居意愿。政府应采取缓解、适应和平衡经济发展与气候变化的措施，以减少夏季热的不利影响，并更多地关注弱势群体和落后地区。
