The risk of cervical cancer associated with specific types of human papillomavirus: a case-control study in a UK population.

Mounting evidence supports incorporation of HPV testing into cervical screening; however, the optimal test format and target population have yet to be confirmed. Assessment of the potential benefits of type-specific testing requires estimation of the risk associated with infection with individual HPV types. However, the risk posed by individual HPV types may be population specific and influenced by cervical screening practice. The existing data on HPV type-specific risk is derived largely from unscreened populations. Our study addressed the lack of data on HPV type-specific risk in cytologically screened populations using a case-control study of 262 invasive cervical cancers diagnosed in Wales between 2000 and 2006, and 8,428 controls who attended for cytological screening in 2004. The analysis showed that the odds ratios (ORs) for infection with HPV 16 and 18 are considerable; 2770 (95% CI 1050-7320) and 950 (95% CI 330-2740), respectively, and that the OR for other oncogenic types are in general considerably less (ranging, where quantified, from 20.2 to 386 in the same population). The effect of age on OR associated with particular HPV types was also assessed; this indicated that infection with a high-risk HPV in women older than 40 years was associated with an approximately 30-fold increased risk of invasive cervical cancer relative to women younger than 40 years. These results indicate that there is significant prognostic information associated with knowledge of HPV type.