Using a whole farm model to determine the impacts of mating management on the profitability of pasture-based dairy farms.

An approach to assessing likely impacts of altering reproductive performance on productivity and profitability in pasture-based dairy farms is described. The basis is the development of a whole farm model (WFM) that simulates the entire farm system and holistically links multiple physical performance factors to profitability. The WFM consists of a framework that links a mechanistic cow model, a pasture model, a crop model, management policies and climate. It simulates individual cows and paddocks, and runs on a day time-step. The WFM was upgraded to include reproductive modeling capability using reference tables and empirical equations describing published relationships between cow factors, physiology and mating management. It predicts reproductive status at any time point for individual cows within a modeled herd. The performance of six commercial pasture-based dairy farms was simulated for the period of 12 months beginning 1 June 2005 (05/06 year) to evaluate the accuracy of the model by comparison with actual outcomes. The model predicted most key performance indicators within an acceptable range of error (residual<10% of observed). The evaluated WFM was then used for the six farms to estimate the profitability of changes in farm "set-up" (farm conditions at the start of the farming year on 1 June) and mating management from 05/06 to 06/07 year. Among the six farms simulated, the 4-week calving rate emerged as an important set-up factor influencing profitability, while reproductive performance during natural bull mating was identified as an area with the greatest opportunity for improvement. The WFM presents utility to explore alternative management strategies to predict likely outcomes to proposed changes to a pasture-based farm system.