National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2010 Aug;34(4):368-72. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2010.04.015. Epub 2010 May 26.
The purpose of this study is to estimate and project the number of years of potential life lost (YPLL) among males who die of prostate cancer in the United States from 2004 through 2050 and compare the projections by race/ethnicity and age, accounting for demographic changes and population growth.
We applied the life expectancy method to estimate YPLL caused by deaths of prostate cancer and all cancers in men by using 1999-2004 national mortality data, 2008 census population demographic projections, and 2004 U.S. life tables. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying death rate and population projections, and examined increase in YPLL from population growth, changes in demographics, and death rates.
The number of YPLL caused by prostate cancer deaths was projected to increase by 226.1%, from 291,853 in 2004 to 951,753 in 2050. Hispanics were projected to have the fastest growth in YPLL (977.1% from 2004 to 2050) caused by prostate cancer, followed by non-Hispanic blacks (543.1%), and non-Hispanic others (269.7%). People aged 75 or older was projected to account for 62.0% of YPLL from prostate cancer in 2050 compared with 50.8% in 2004. Of the projected increase in YPLL caused by prostate cancer deaths by 2050, 9.8% were due to changes in demographic composition, 26.8% because of mortality change, and 63.4% because of population growth.
YPLL due to prostate cancer deaths are projected to increase dramatically, and become a greater burden in the future. The projections highlight the importance of comprehensive cancer control and research on cancers including prostate cancer and racial/ethnic-specific estimates.
本研究旨在估计并预测 2004 年至 2050 年期间美国因前列腺癌死亡的男性的预期寿命损失年数（YPLL），并按种族/族裔和年龄进行比较，同时考虑人口变化和人口增长。
我们应用预期寿命法，根据 1999-2004 年国家死亡率数据、2008 年人口普查人口统计预测和 2004 年美国生命表，估计男性因前列腺癌和所有癌症死亡导致的 YPLL。我们通过改变死亡率和人口预测进行了敏感性分析，并检查了人口增长、人口结构变化和死亡率导致的 YPLL 增加。
预计因前列腺癌死亡导致的 YPLL 数量将增加 226.1%，从 2004 年的 291853 人增加到 2050 年的 951753 人。预计西班牙裔的 YPLL 增长最快（从 2004 年到 2050 年增长 977.1%），其次是非西班牙裔黑人（543.1%）和非西班牙裔其他人（269.7%）。预计 2050 年，75 岁或以上人群将占前列腺癌所致 YPLL 的 62.0%，而 2004 年为 50.8%。到 2050 年，前列腺癌死亡导致的 YPLL 预计将增加 9.8%归因于人口结构变化，26.8%归因于死亡率变化，63.4%归因于人口增长。
预计因前列腺癌死亡导致的 YPLL 将大幅增加，未来将成为更大的负担。这些预测强调了综合癌症控制和包括前列腺癌在内的癌症以及种族/族裔特定估计研究的重要性。
