Department of Environmental Health, and Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Jul 1;44(13):5216-24. doi: 10.1021/es903359u.
We developed a probabilistic model to characterize the plausible distribution of health and economic benefits that would accrue to the U.S. population following reduction of methyl mercury (MeHg) exposure. MeHg, a known human developmental neurotoxicant, may increase fatal heart attack risks. Model parameters reflect current understanding of the relationships between MeHg intake, health risks, and societal valuation of these risks. The expected monetary value of the annual health benefits generated by a 10% reduction in U.S. population exposure to MeHg for one year is $860 million; 80% of this is associated with reductions in fatal heart attacks and the remainder with IQ gains. The plausible distribution of the benefits is quite broad with 5th and 95th percentile estimates of approximately $50 million and $3.5 billion, respectively. The largest source of uncertainty is whether epidemiological associations between MeHg exposure and fatal heart attacks reflect causality. The next largest sources of uncertainty concern the slope of the relationship between maternal MeHg exposure and reduced intelligence among children and whether this relationship exhibits a threshold. Our analysis suggests that the possible causal relationship between MeHg exposure and fatal heart attacks should be better characterized, using additional epidemiological studies and formally elicited expert judgment.
我们开发了一个概率模型，以描述美国人口减少甲基汞（MeHg）暴露后可能获得的健康和经济效益的合理分布。MeHg 是一种已知的人类发育神经毒物，可能会增加致命心脏病发作的风险。模型参数反映了目前对 MeHg 摄入、健康风险以及对这些风险的社会价值评估之间关系的理解。假设美国人口每年减少 10%的 MeHg 暴露，持续一年，每年可获得的健康效益的预期货币价值为 8.6 亿美元；其中 80%与致命心脏病发作的减少有关，其余与智商提高有关。效益的合理分布范围很广，第 5 个和第 95 个百分位数的估计值分别约为 5000 万美元和 35 亿美元。最大的不确定性来源是 MeHg 暴露与致命心脏病发作之间的流行病学关联是否反映因果关系。其次的不确定性来源是母亲 MeHg 暴露与儿童智力下降之间关系的斜率以及这种关系是否存在阈值。我们的分析表明，应该使用更多的流行病学研究和正式征求专家意见，更好地描述 MeHg 暴露与致命心脏病发作之间可能存在的因果关系。
