Zu Dohna Heinrich, Pineda-Krch Mario
Center for Animal Disease Modelling, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95618, USA.
Theor Popul Biol. 2010 Sep;78(2):71-6. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2010.06.004. Epub 2010 Jun 17.
Populations that are structured into small local patches are a common feature of ecological and epidemiological systems. Models describing this structure are often referred to as metapopulation models in ecology or household models in epidemiology. Small local populations are subject to demographic stochasticity. Theoretical studies of household disease models without resistant stages (SIS models) have shown that local stochasticity can be ignored for between patch disease transmission if the number of connected patches is large. In that case the distribution of the number of infected individuals per household reaches a stationary distribution described by a birth-death process with a constant immigration term. Here we show how this result, in conjunction with the balancing condition for birth-death processes, provides a framework to estimate demographic parameters from a frequency distribution of local population sizes. The parameter estimation framework is applicable to estimate parameters of disease transmission models as well as metapopulation models.
由小的局部斑块构成的种群是生态和流行病学系统的一个常见特征。描述这种结构的模型在生态学中常被称为集合种群模型，在流行病学中则被称为家庭模型。小的局部种群会受到人口统计学随机性的影响。对没有抗性阶段的家庭疾病模型（SIS模型）的理论研究表明，如果相连斑块的数量很大，那么在斑块间疾病传播时可以忽略局部随机性。在这种情况下，每个家庭中感染个体数量的分布会达到一种平稳分布，该分布由一个具有恒定迁入项的生死过程来描述。在这里，我们展示了这个结果如何与生死过程的平衡条件相结合，提供一个从局部种群规模的频率分布来估计人口统计学参数的框架。该参数估计框架适用于估计疾病传播模型以及集合种群模型的参数。
