Office of the Special Representative of the WHO Director-General in Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Int J Infect Dis. 2010 Aug;14(8):e698-703. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2010.03.001. Epub 2010 Jun 2.
To evaluate risk factors for in-patient treatment interruptions (TIs) in Russian tuberculosis (TB) hospitals.
The regional case-based registers for all TB patients registered in the main regional TB hospitals were analyzed for the period 1993-2002. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for TIs was performed using logistic regression. The prediction rule was developed based on the final multivariable model coefficients obtained from analysis of the largest (Lipetsk) database.
During the study period, 18-50% of new cases and 36-56% of retreatment cases had interrupted in-patient treatment. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of treatment interruption included: male gender (odds ratios (ORs) 1.5-2.3), age group 25-50 years (ORs 1.5-1.7), alcohol abuse (ORs 1.8-4.0), imprisonment history (ORs 1.3-2.5), unemployment (ORs 1.1-2.8), being a retreatment case (ORs 1.3-2.5), and having severe forms of TB (1.4-4.0); factors protective from interruption included urban residence (ORs 0.7-0.9) and having concomitant diseases (ORs 0.6-0.8). Based on the Lipeck model, new TB cases from the four regions were divided into low, high, and very high risk groups. Proportions of TI were approximately 20-35% in the low risk group, approximately 60-75% in the high risk group, and approximately 75-85% in the very high risk group (except Orel).
We have described the independent predictors of patient TI, and a predictive rule for the in-patient TB treatment phase interruptions has been developed. Treatment interruption is a significant obstacle in the success of the National Tuberculosis Control Program in Russia. Interventions targeted at the high risk groups should be implemented in order to prevent in-patient treatment interruption.
评估俄罗斯结核病(TB)医院住院治疗中断(TI)的危险因素。
分析了 1993 年至 2002 年期间主要地区结核病医院登记的所有结核病患者的区域病例基础登记。使用逻辑回归对 TI 的危险因素进行多变量分析。根据分析最大(利佩茨克)数据库获得的最终多变量模型系数,制定预测规则。
在研究期间,新发病例中有 18-50%,复治病例中有 36-56%的患者中断了住院治疗。在多变量分析中,治疗中断的独立预测因素包括:男性(比值比(ORs)1.5-2.3)、25-50 岁年龄组(ORs 1.5-1.7)、酗酒(ORs 1.8-4.0)、有监禁史(ORs 1.3-2.5)、失业(ORs 1.1-2.8)、复治病例(ORs 1.3-2.5)和患有严重结核病(1.4-4.0);保护因素包括居住在城市(ORs 0.7-0.9)和合并疾病(ORs 0.6-0.8)。基于利普克模型,来自四个地区的新结核病病例被分为低、高和极高风险组。低风险组的 TI 比例约为 20-35%,高风险组约为 60-75%,极高风险组约为 75-85%(奥廖尔除外)。
我们描述了患者 TI 的独立预测因素,并制定了住院结核病治疗阶段中断的预测规则。治疗中断是俄罗斯国家结核病控制计划成功的一个重大障碍。应针对高风险群体实施干预措施,以防止住院治疗中断。