Blenkin Matthew R B, Evans Wendell
Royal Australian Navy, Health Centre Cerberus, HMAS Cerberus, Vic. 3920, Australia.
J Forensic Sci. 2010 Nov;55(6):1504-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2010.01491.x.
The estimation of age at time of death is often an important step in the identification of human remains. The purpose of this study was to test the applicability of the Demirjian system on a sample of the Sydney child population and to develop and test age-prediction models using a large sample of Sydney children (1624 girls, 1637 boys). The use of the Demirjian standards resulted in consistent overestimates of chronological age in children under the age of 14 by as much as a mean of 0.99 years. Of the alternative predictive models derived from the Sydney sample, those that provided the most accurate age estimates are applicable for the age ranges 2-14 years, with R-square = 0.94 and a 95% confidence interval of ±1.8 years. The Sydney-based standards provided significantly different and more accurate estimates of age for that sample when compared to the published standards of Demirjian.
死亡时间的年龄估计通常是人类遗骸鉴定中的重要一步。本研究的目的是测试德米尔坚系统在悉尼儿童样本中的适用性,并使用大量悉尼儿童样本(1624名女孩,1637名男孩)开发和测试年龄预测模型。使用德米尔坚标准导致14岁以下儿童的实足年龄被一致高估,平均高估多达0.99岁。在从悉尼样本得出的替代预测模型中,那些提供最准确年龄估计的模型适用于2至14岁的年龄范围,决定系数R² = 0.94,95%置信区间为±1.8岁。与已发表的德米尔坚标准相比,基于悉尼的标准为该样本提供了显著不同且更准确的年龄估计。