Department of Economics, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207, USA.
J Health Econ. 2010 Jul;29(4):536-40. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2010.05.005. Epub 2010 May 26.
We introduce a formal definition of health equivalent to dead into a standard model to develop previously unrecognized insights. We find that the health state viewed as equivalent to dead will depend on an individual's health prognosis, probability of survival, and rate of time preference. Our work on maximum endurable time shows that using QALY scores based on long-run preferences to value health states that last for shorter periods can alter cardinal and ordinal valuations. Simulations show that errors of substantial magnitude in QALY scores can consequently result. We describe situations where biases are likely and identify possible corrections.
我们在标准模型中引入了一个等同于死亡的健康的正式定义,以得出以前未被认识到的见解。我们发现,被视为等同于死亡的健康状态将取决于个人的健康预测、生存概率和时间偏好率。我们关于最大可耐受时间的工作表明,使用基于长期偏好的 QALY 评分来对持续时间较短的健康状态进行估值,可能会改变基数和序数估值。模拟表明,因此可能会导致 QALY 评分的大量误差。我们描述了可能存在偏差的情况,并确定了可能的纠正方法。