Evaluation of ELISA test characteristics and estimation of Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in Dutch sheep using mixture models.

Lamb and mutton are considered important sources of human Toxoplasma gondii infections, but actual data on the prevalence of T. gondii in sheep in The Netherlands is lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of T. gondii in slaughtered sheep to get more insight in the importance of sheep as a source of human infection. In addition, regional variation in prevalence was studied, as this may indicate differences in environmental contamination. An in-house ELISA that detects antibodies against T. gondii was developed and used to test 1179 sera collected from sheep presented at 11 Dutch slaughterhouses between October and December 2007. Since validation of the serological assay was hampered by a lack of appropriate reference sera, the diagnostic performance and seroprevalence were estimated by fitting a binormal mixture model. ROC-curve analysis on the fitted distributions showed high discriminatory power (AUC=0.995), and high sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA. The overall prevalence was estimated at 27.8% (25.6-29.9%), but was significantly higher in sheep over 1 year old, and in sheep from the central provinces. The high sensitivity and specificity of the in-house ELISA were confirmed by Bayesian analysis together with three commercially available assays: Toxo-Screen DA (bioMérieux), Chekit Toxotest Antibody ELISA (IDEXX), and Toxoplasmosis serum screening ELISA (Institut Pourquier). In conclusion, the binormal mixture model proved a useful method to obtain estimates of diagnostic performance and seroprevalence without use of reference sera. The seroprevalence in sheep was high, and as sheep with antibodies usually carry tissue cysts, this indicates that undercooked lamb and mutton may indeed be important sources of human toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands.