Wageningen University, Department of Environmental Sciences, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
J Environ Manage. 2010 Dec;91(12):2615-25. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.07.041. Epub 2010 Aug 11.
In rural regions, land use changes (LUC) are often the result of the decision-making of individual farmers. To influence this decision-making, compulsory and voluntary mechanisms are implemented. However, farmers' decision-making is a heterogeneous process that depends on their ability and willingness to take certain decisions. Discrepancies between farmers' ability and willingness and the design of voluntary mechanisms occur frequently. This makes it necessary to understand how farmers' participation in these mechanisms can affect LUC. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate an agent-based approach to analyse and explore how voluntary mechanisms can influence LUC processes in rural regions. This approach was applied to a rural region in Australia, where clearing of native vegetation has occurred for agricultural development. Historical land cover data and semi-structured interviews were used to parameterise an agent-based model. Factors that influence farmers' ability and willingness to participate in these mechanisms were identified. Three scenarios were simulated with the model to explore how the implementation of different voluntary mechanisms can affect the landscape structure of the region. This paper identifies how the diversity of farmers' decision-making can influence the landscape structure in the region. The advantages and limitations of an agent-based approach in relation to LUC research and policy are discussed.
在农村地区，土地利用变化（LUC）通常是个体农民决策的结果。为了影响这种决策，实施了强制性和自愿性机制。然而，农民的决策是一个异质的过程，取决于他们做出某些决策的能力和意愿。农民的能力和意愿与自愿性机制的设计之间经常存在差异。这使得我们有必要了解农民参与这些机制如何影响 LUC。本文旨在展示一种基于代理的方法来分析和探索自愿性机制如何影响农村地区的 LUC 过程。该方法应用于澳大利亚的一个农村地区，那里的原生植被已经为农业发展而被清除。历史土地覆盖数据和半结构化访谈被用于参数化基于代理的模型。确定了影响农民参与这些机制的能力和意愿的因素。该模型模拟了三种情景，以探索不同自愿性机制的实施如何影响该地区的景观结构。本文确定了农民决策的多样性如何影响该地区的景观结构。讨论了基于代理的方法在 LUC 研究和政策方面的优势和局限性。
