Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
J Environ Manage. 2012 Nov 30;111:96-105. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.019. Epub 2012 Jul 24.
Landscape services represent the benefits human populations derive, directly or indirectly, from (agro-)ecosystem functions at the landscape scale. Many of these services are the result of farmers' decision making to allocate resources to other activities than food production and therefore are the result of farm the adoption of on-farm rural activities. With changing agricultural and rural policies, the future provision of landscape services to fulfill societal demands is not guaranteed. This study aims at mapping the spatial distribution of the adoption of on-farm rural activities under different explorative scenarios. For a Dutch landscape, storylines at the landscape scale were developed by combining global storylines, resulting from the Global Environmental Outlook, with local storylines resulting from key informant interviews. Subsequently these storylines were translated into quantitative scenarios that were implemented into a simulation procedure based on spatially explicit econometric models of farmer's decision making. Results show that further market liberalization leads to a decrease of landscape services in the study area. In our study, only increased cooperation between government, farmers and citizens appears to result in a general increase of all landscape services across the entire landscape.
景观服务代表了人类直接或间接从（农业）生态系统景观尺度功能中获得的效益。这些服务中的许多是农民将资源分配到除食品生产以外的其他活动的决策结果，因此是农业采用农场内外活动的结果。随着农业和农村政策的变化，未来能否提供满足社会需求的景观服务是无法保证的。本研究旨在根据不同的探索性情景，绘制农场内外活动采用的空间分布情况。在荷兰景观中，通过将全球环境展望产生的全球情景与关键知情人访谈产生的地方情景相结合，制定了景观尺度的情景。随后，将这些情景转化为定量情景，并将其纳入基于农民决策的空间显式计量经济学模型的模拟程序。结果表明，进一步的市场自由化会导致研究区域景观服务的减少。在我们的研究中，只有政府、农民和公民之间加强合作，才会导致整个景观的所有景观服务普遍增加。
