Servicio de Radiofísica, Hospital Universitario San Cecilio, Avda Dr Olóriz, 16 E-18012 Granada, Spain.
Phys Med Biol. 2010 Sep 7;55(17):5213-29. doi: 10.1088/0031-9155/55/17/021. Epub 2010 Aug 16.
A Monte Carlo tool which permits the simulation of screening mammography programmes is developed. Various statistical distributions describing different parameters involved in the problem are used: the characteristics of the population under study, a tumour growth model and a model for tumour detection based on parameters such as sensitivity and specificity which depends on the woman's age. We reproduce results of different actual programmes. The model enables us to find out the configuration (the age of the women who attend the screening trials and screening frequency) which produces maximum benefits with minimum risks. In addition, the model has permitted us to validate some of the assumed hypothesis, such as the probability distribution of the tumour detection as a function of the tumour size, the frequency of the histological types and the transition probability between different histological types.
开发了一个用于模拟乳房 X 光筛查计划的蒙特卡罗工具。使用了各种描述问题中涉及的不同参数的统计分布：研究人群的特征、肿瘤生长模型以及基于灵敏度和特异性等参数的肿瘤检测模型，这些参数取决于女性的年龄。我们重现了不同实际计划的结果。该模型使我们能够找到最佳效益和最小风险的配置（参加筛查试验的女性的年龄和筛查频率）。此外，该模型还使我们能够验证一些假设，例如肿瘤检测的概率分布作为肿瘤大小、组织学类型的频率和不同组织学类型之间的转移概率的函数。
