Health Economics & Management, Institute of Economic Research, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010 Jul;7(7):2881-95. doi: 10.3390/ijerph7072881. Epub 2010 Jul 16.
This study estimates the avoidable and unavoidable costs of alcohol-related, liver cirrhosis inpatient care, controlling for the lag structure and period of decline in disease risk. Lag structures with different lengths are applied to the exposure to risk from alcohol consumption, which allows for differentiation between avoidable and unavoidable cases due to prior consumption. A lag length of 20 (men) and 23 (women) years (expected remaining life years) gives a total cost of 592 million SEK. Given alcohol consumption is reduced to zero, 72% of cost could potentially be avoided. It is important to account for the length and structure of the risk decline following a consumption change as this substantially affects the estimates.
本研究旨在估算与酒精相关的肝硬化住院治疗的可避免和不可避免成本，同时控制疾病风险下降的滞后结构和时期。针对饮酒风险暴露，应用了不同长度的滞后结构，从而区分了因先前饮酒而导致的可避免和不可避免的病例。对于男性，风险暴露滞后 20 年（预期剩余寿命），对于女性，风险暴露滞后 23 年，总的费用为 5.92 亿瑞典克朗。如果将酒精摄入量降低到零，那么 72%的费用可能会被避免。考虑到饮酒行为改变后风险下降的长度和结构非常重要，因为这会对估计结果产生重大影响。
