Skog O J
J Stud Alcohol. 1984 May;45(3):199-208. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1984.45.199.
A hypothesis on the effects of level and duration of alcohol misuse on individual risks for liver cirrhosis is proposed. The hypothesized risk function is a generalized version of the exponential law of other researchers. Some predictions are derived and tested against two types of aggregate data--the age structure of cirrhosis mortality and time-series data for the general population. It is shown that both types of data are compatible with the proposed risk function. It is also shown that the fact that extensive alcohol misuse will result in death from cirrhosis only after a considerable number of years does not contradict the observation that changes in per capita consumption normally have an instantaneous effect on cirrhosis mortality.
提出了一个关于酒精滥用程度和持续时间对个体患肝硬化风险影响的假说。假设的风险函数是其他研究人员指数定律的广义形式。从两种类型的总体数据——肝硬化死亡率的年龄结构和普通人群的时间序列数据中得出并检验了一些预测。结果表明，这两种类型的数据都与所提出的风险函数相符。还表明，大量酒精滥用只有在相当长的数年之后才会导致肝硬化死亡这一事实，与人均饮酒量的变化通常会对肝硬化死亡率产生即时影响这一观察结果并不矛盾。
