Marks R J, Simons R S, Blizzard R A, Browne D R
Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Therapy, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK.
Intensive Care Med. 1991;17(3):159-63. doi: 10.1007/BF01704720.
In a prospective study 568 patients admitted to a mixed medical and surgical intensive therapy unit (ITU) were assessed using the Apache II severity of illness score to predict outcome. Their outcome was also predicted subjectively by a doctor and nurse on admission. There were 260 deaths in the group. The subjective predictions were compared with the Apache II predictions using logistic regression analysis and receiver-operating-characteristic curve measurement. The subjective assessments were found to be a more powerful predictor of outcome in this group of patients than the Apache II scores and predicted risk of death. Although the predictions could be successfully applied to the population as a whole, none of the tests were suitable for predicting outcome on an individual patient.
在一项前瞻性研究中，对收治于内科与外科混合重症监护病房（ITU）的568例患者，使用急性生理学及慢性健康状况评分系统（Apache II）的疾病严重程度评分来预测预后。入院时，一名医生和一名护士也对他们的预后进行了主观预测。该组中有260例死亡。使用逻辑回归分析和受试者工作特征曲线测量法，将主观预测与Apache II预测进行比较。结果发现，在这组患者中，主观评估比Apache II评分及预测的死亡风险更能有力地预测预后。虽然这些预测能够成功应用于总体人群，但没有一项测试适用于预测个体患者的预后。
