Mov Disord. 2010 Oct 15;25(13):2219-24. doi: 10.1002/mds.23236.
This study assessed the futility of proceeding with a Phase 3 clinical trial of minocycline as a disease-modifying treatment for Huntington's disease (HD). One hundred fourteen research participants with HD were randomized, 87 to minocycline (200 mg/d) and 27 to placebo. The change in Total Functional Capacity (TFC) score from baseline to Mo 18 was prespecified as the primary measure of HD progression. By using a futility design, we tested the null hypothesis that minocycline would reduce the mean decline in TFC score by at least 25% compared to a fixed value obtained from a historical database, with a one-tailed significance level of 10%. The placebo group was included to facilitate blinding. Rejection of the null hypothesis would discourage a major definitive trial of minocycline in HD. For the primary analysis, missing data were handled by carrying forward the last available observation; a secondary analysis used multiple imputations. The mean TFC decline in the minocycline group was 1.55 (SD 1.85), and futility was not declared (P = 0.12) for the primary analysis. When multiple imputation was used to handle missing data, the mean TFC decline in the minocycline group of 1.71 (SD 1.96, P = 0.07) suggested futility, as was the case for prespecified secondary outcome measures. There were no safety abnormalities attributable to minocycline. Based on the threshold of 25% improvement in TFC, further study of minocycline 200 mg/d in HD was not warranted. Futility designs aid in screening potential therapies for HD.
这项研究评估了米诺环素作为亨廷顿病(HD)的疾病修正治疗进行 3 期临床试验是否无效。114 名 HD 研究参与者被随机分为米诺环素(200mg/d)组 87 人和安慰剂组 27 人。从基线到第 18 个月总功能容量(TFC)评分的变化被预设为 HD 进展的主要测量指标。通过使用无效性设计,我们检验了无效假设,即与从历史数据库获得的固定值相比,米诺环素将减少 TFC 评分的平均下降至少 25%,单侧显著性水平为 10%。包括安慰剂组是为了便于盲法。如果无效假设被拒绝,将不鼓励对米诺环素在 HD 中的主要决定性试验进行研究。对于主要分析,缺失数据通过向前传递最后一个可获得的观察值进行处理;二次分析使用了多次插补。米诺环素组的 TFC 平均下降为 1.55(SD 1.85),主要分析中未宣布无效(P=0.12)。当使用多次插补处理缺失数据时,米诺环素组的 TFC 平均下降为 1.71(SD 1.96,P=0.07),表明无效,这与预定的次要结局测量结果一致。米诺环素没有引起任何安全性异常。基于 TFC 改善 25%的阈值,进一步研究米诺环素 200mg/d 在 HD 中的应用是没有必要的。无效性设计有助于筛选潜在的 HD 治疗方法。