Transportation Research Institute, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Israel.
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):1682-8. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.04.007. Epub 2010 May 14.
The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of daily-activity and travel patterns on the risk of crash involvement. To this end, we develop a model that integrates daily-activity and travel choices in a single framework, recognizing that these variables affect the risk of crashes. This model can therefore provide predictions of the expected changes in risk levels from the implementation of measures that affect the daily-activity patterns and the socio-economic characteristics of the population. The empirical analysis makes use of data collected during a household survey that includes crash information and trip diaries. The model is applied in a case study of an Arab town in Israel to analyze various transportation policies. The results of this research show that in addition to individuals' demographic and socio-economic characteristics, their daily-activity and travel patterns also have an impact on the risk of being involved in car crashes. The case study showed the potential of this framework for analyzing the effect of various social and transportation policies on road safety. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such relationships have been tested by using a disaggregate model and the first time activity-based models have been used to analyze exposure to the risk of road crashes.
本研究的主要目的是分析日常活动和出行模式对事故风险的影响。为此，我们开发了一个模型，将日常活动和出行选择整合在一个单一的框架中，认识到这些变量会影响事故风险。因此，该模型可以提供有关实施影响人口日常活动模式和社会经济特征的措施后预期风险水平变化的预测。实证分析利用了在家庭调查中收集的数据，其中包括事故信息和出行日记。该模型应用于以色列一个阿拉伯城镇的案例研究，以分析各种交通政策。这项研究的结果表明，除了个人的人口统计学和社会经济特征外，他们的日常活动和出行模式也会影响卷入车祸的风险。该案例研究显示了该框架分析各种社会和交通政策对道路安全影响的潜力。据我们所知，这是第一次使用非聚合模型来检验这些关系，也是第一次使用基于活动的模型来分析接触道路碰撞风险的情况。
