Department of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Health Econ. 2010 Sep;19(9):1063-74. doi: 10.1002/hec.1647.
The time path of consumption from a rational addiction (RA) model contains information about an individual's tendency to be forward looking. In this paper, we use quantile regression (QR) techniques to investigate whether the tendency to be forward looking varies systematically with the level of consumption of cigarettes. Using panel data, we find that the forward-looking effect is strongest relative to the addiction effect in the lower quantiles of cigarette consumption, and that the forward-looking effect declines and the addiction effect increases as we move toward the upper quantiles. The results indicate that QR can be used to illuminate the heterogeneity in individuals' tendency to be forward looking even after controlling for factors such as education. QR also gives useful information about the differential impact of policy variables, most notably workplace smoking restrictions, on light and heavy smokers.
从理性成瘾（RA）模型来看，消费的时间路径包含了个体前瞻性倾向的信息。本文利用分位数回归（QR）技术，研究了前瞻性倾向是否会随着香烟消费的增加而系统性地变化。通过面板数据，我们发现，相对于成瘾效应，前瞻性效应在香烟消费的较低分位数中最强，并且随着我们向更高的分位数移动，前瞻性效应下降，成瘾效应增加。结果表明，即使在控制了教育等因素后，QR 也可以用来阐明个体前瞻性倾向的异质性。QR 还提供了有关政策变量（尤其是工作场所吸烟限制）对轻度和重度吸烟者的不同影响的有用信息。
