Unidad de Investigación Epidemiológica y en Servicios de Salud, Área de Envejecimiento, Centro Médico Nacional Siglo XXI, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, México, D.F., México.
Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2011 Feb;39(1):44-52. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0528.2010.00569.x. Epub 2010 Aug 23.
To identify factors associated with root caries development in a 12- month period, in an elderly Mexican population, so as to develop a prediction model for the occurrence of root caries.
A case-cohort study was carried out with 698 randomly selected beneficiaries of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS), residing in the southeast of Mexico City. Initially, base line (t₀) data regarding sociodemographic variables, general health, general and oral healthy habits, salivary conditions, cariogenic microorganisms and oral health clinical indicators were collected. Twelve months from the date of the first clinical evaluation (t₁), a new examination was carried out to determine the root caries increment. Variables that showed a significant association (P ≤ 0.05) with the root caries increment were included in the prediction model.
Six hundred and ninety-eight elderly subjects were included in the cohort (t₀), with 76.1% (n = 531) of the elderly patients followed up at 12 months (t₁). Incidence of root caries was 21.7% (n = 115), a mean root caries increase of 0.4 (1.0) surfaces. The variables, DLBA limitations (Yes), smoking (Yes), mouthwash (No), Mutans streptococci (≥10⁵ CFU/ml), healthy root surfaces (≥6) and Root Caries Index (≥8%), showed a statistically significant association (P < 0.05). This model showed a correct classification in 80.0% (n = 425) and an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.75.
This is a good prediction model for the 12 months root caries increment in this population of elderly Mexicans.
在墨西哥老年人群中，确定与 12 个月内根龋发展相关的因素，以建立根龋发生的预测模型。
本研究采用病例-队列设计，对墨西哥社会保障研究所（IMSS）的 698 名随机受益人的数据进行分析，这些人居住在墨西哥城东南部。最初，在基线（t₀）收集了社会人口统计学变量、一般健康状况、一般和口腔健康习惯、唾液状况、致龋微生物和口腔健康临床指标的数据。在第一次临床评估（t₁）后 12 个月，进行了新的检查以确定根龋增量。将与根龋增量有显著关联的变量（P≤0.05）纳入预测模型。
共纳入 698 名老年受试者作为队列（t₀），其中 76.1%（n=531）的老年患者在 12 个月（t₁）时得到了随访。根龋的发生率为 21.7%（n=115），平均根龋增加 0.4（1.0）个表面。DLBA 受限（是）、吸烟（是）、使用漱口水（否）、变形链球菌（≥10⁵ CFU/ml）、健康根面（≥6）和根龋指数（≥8%）这些变量与根龋发生呈显著相关（P＜0.05）。该模型对 80.0%（n=425）的患者进行了正确分类，受试者工作特征曲线下面积为 0.75。
该模型可较好地预测墨西哥老年人群在 12 个月内的根龋增量。
