Ehling Manfred, Pötzsch Olga
Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden, Germany.
Transfus Med Hemother. 2010 Jun;37(3):131-139. doi: 10.1159/000314281. Epub 2010 May 20.
This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.
本文概述了最近一项关于到2060年德国人口结构与发展的模型计算结果，旨在为未来向民众提供血液成分提供基础人口数据。首先，本文描述了生育率、预期寿命以及德国移民与移民平衡方面的假设，这些假设构成了预测的基础。接下来的部分讨论结果，量化德国人口规模和年龄结构的未来变化，并说明从当今角度可以识别的人口趋势的影响。未来，潜在献血者的数量在绝对和相对（相对于总人口和“非献血者”年龄组）方面都将下降。18至68岁年龄组以及另选的17至70岁年龄组都是如此。根据不同变体，到2060年献血年龄人口将减少四分之一至三分之一。
