D'Agata E M C, Webb G F, Pressley J
Division of Infectious Diseases, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
Math Model Nat Phenom. 2010;5(3):76-73. doi: 10.1051/mmnp/20105306.
Community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA- MRSA), a novel strain of MRSA, has recently emerged and rapidly spread in the community. Invasion into the hospital setting with replacement of the hospital-acquired MRSA (HA-MRSA) has also been documented. Co-colonization with both CA-MRSA and HA-MRSA would have important clinical implications given differences in antimicrobial susceptibility profiles and the potential for exchange of genetic information. METHODS: A deterministic mathematical model was developed to characterize the transmission dynamics of HA-MRSA and CA-MRSA in the hospital setting and to quantify the emergence of co-colonization with both strains RESULTS: The model analysis shows that the state of co-colonization becomes endemic over time and that typically there is no competitive exclusion of either strain. Increasing the length of stay or rate of hospital entry among patients colonized with CA-MRSA leads to a rapid increase in the co-colonized state. Compared to MRSA decolonization strategy, improving hand hygiene compliance has the greatest impact on decreasing the prevalence of HA-MRSA, CA-MRSA and the co-colonized state. CONCLUSIONS: The model predicts that with the expanding community reservoir of CA-MRSA, the majority of hospitalized patients will become colonized with both CA-MRSA and HA-MRSA.
社区获得性耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(CA-MRSA)是一种新型的耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌菌株,最近在社区中出现并迅速传播。有文献记载其已侵入医院环境并取代了医院获得性耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(HA-MRSA)。鉴于抗菌药物敏感性谱的差异以及遗传信息交换的可能性,CA-MRSA和HA-MRSA的共同定植具有重要的临床意义。
建立了一个确定性数学模型,以描述HA-MRSA和CA-MRSA在医院环境中的传播动态,并量化两种菌株共同定植的出现情况。
模型分析表明,随着时间的推移,共同定植状态会成为地方病状态,而且通常不会出现对任何一种菌株的竞争性排斥。在感染CA-MRSA的患者中,增加住院时间或入院率会导致共同定植状态迅速增加。与耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌去定植策略相比,提高手卫生依从性对降低HA-MRSA、CA-MRSA的患病率以及共同定植状态的影响最大。
该模型预测,随着CA-MRSA在社区中的储存库不断扩大,大多数住院患者将同时感染CA-MRSA和HA-MRSA。