Zhang Lening, Wieczorek William F, Welte John W, Colder Craig, Nochajski Thomas H
Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, Saint Francis University, Loretto, PA 15940.
J Crim Justice. 2010 Jul 1;38(4):439-445. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2010.04.012.
The present study assessed how the trajectory of delinquency affects the growth curve of alcohol-impaired driving using three-waves of data collected from the Buffalo Longitudinal Survey of Young Men (BLSYM). Using the structural equation modeling method, latent growth modeling was utilized to assess four age cohorts of sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, and nineteen years of age at the first wave. The data indicated that the growth rate of delinquency significantly and positively affects the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving for the respondents who were sixteen at the first wave. The growth rate of drinking was also significantly and positively associated with the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving for this age cohort. Although the growth rate of delinquency had no significant effect on the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving for the age cohort which was seventeen at Wave 1, the growth rates of both drinking and drug use did affect for this age cohort. The data, however, showed that alcohol-impaired driving had a significant increase across the waves for the eighteen year old cohort, but there was no significant variation in the rate across respondents. Finally, for the nineteen year old cohort there was no significant increase in alcohol-impaired driving across the waves, and also no significant variation of the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving across the respondents. These findings indicated that interventions focused on reducing delinquency, alcohol and drug use by sixteen and seventeen year old male adolescents will also reduce their alcohol-impaired driving.
本研究利用从布法罗青年男性纵向调查(BLSYM)收集的三波数据,评估了犯罪轨迹如何影响酒后驾车的增长曲线。采用结构方程建模方法,运用潜在增长模型对第一波调查中16岁、17岁、18岁和19岁的四个年龄组进行评估。数据表明,对于第一波调查时16岁的受访者,犯罪率的增长对酒后驾车率的增长有显著的正向影响。饮酒率的增长也与该年龄组酒后驾车率的增长显著正相关。虽然第一波调查时17岁的年龄组中,犯罪率的增长对酒后驾车率的增长没有显著影响,但饮酒率和吸毒率的增长对该年龄组有影响。然而,数据显示,18岁年龄组的酒后驾车率在各波调查中显著增加,但受访者之间的比率没有显著差异。最后,对于19岁年龄组,各波调查中酒后驾车率没有显著增加,受访者之间酒后驾车率的增长率也没有显著差异。这些发现表明,针对16岁和17岁男性青少年减少犯罪、饮酒和吸毒的干预措施,也将减少他们的酒后驾车行为。