Choi Bernard Ck
Centre for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Epidemiol Perspect Innov. 2010 Aug 31;7:8. doi: 10.1186/1742-5573-7-8.
The purpose of this paper was to compare two mathematical procedures to estimate the annual attributable number of deaths (the Allison et al procedure and the Mokdad et al procedure), and derive a new procedure that combines the best aspects of both procedures. The new procedure calculates attributable number of deaths along a continuum (i.e. for each unit of exposure), and allows for one or more neutral (neither exposed nor nonexposed) exposure categories.
Mathematical derivations and real datasets were used to demonstrate the theoretical relationship and practical differences between the two procedures. Results of the comparison were used to develop a new procedure that combines the best features of both.
The Allison procedure is complex because it directly estimates the number of attributable deaths. This necessitates calculation of probabilities of death. The Mokdad procedure is simpler because it estimates the number of attributable deaths indirectly through population attributable fractions. The probabilities of death cancel out in the numerator and denominator of the fractions. However, the Mokdad procedure is not applicable when a neutral exposure category exists.
By combining the innovation of the Allison procedure (allowing for a neutral category) and the simplicity of the Mokdad procedure (using population attributable fractions), this paper proposes a new procedure to calculate attributable numbers of death.
本文旨在比较两种用于估算年度可归因死亡人数的数学方法（即艾利森等人的方法和莫克德等人的方法），并推导出一种结合了两种方法最佳之处的新方法。新方法可沿连续区间（即针对每一个暴露单位）计算可归因死亡人数，并允许存在一个或多个中性（既非暴露也非未暴露）暴露类别。
运用数学推导和实际数据集来论证两种方法之间的理论关系和实际差异。比较结果用于开发一种结合两者最佳特性的新方法。
艾利森方法较为复杂，因为它直接估算可归因死亡人数。这就需要计算死亡概率。莫克德方法则更为简单，因为它通过人群归因分数间接估算可归因死亡人数。死亡概率在分数的分子和分母中相互抵消。然而，当存在中性暴露类别时，莫克德方法并不适用。
通过结合艾利森方法的创新性（允许存在中性类别）和莫克德方法的简易性（使用人群归因分数），本文提出了一种计算可归因死亡人数的新方法。
