[Predictive factors of mortality in a series of 61 patients with severe acute pancreatitis].

The predictive value of eight clinical variables and 20 analytical variables on mortality was retrospectively analyzed in 61 patients with severe acute pancreatitis, fulfilling at least three Ranson criteria, admitted to the ICU between 1977 and 1987. The mean age of the series was 57 +/- 16.6 years. Twenty seven were males and 34 females. The mortality rate was 60%. Univariate analysis demonstrated that the variables with greater predictive value of mortality were: age, days of hospitalization, presence of associated diseases, plasma lactodehydrogenase, more than 10% hematocrit decrease during the first 48 hours, plasma ureic nitrogen on admission and a value greater than 1.8 mmol/l during the first 48 hours, calcemia, arterial oxygen pressure, plasma albumin, and prothrombin time. A logistic regression multivariate analysis disclosed that the variables with independent predictive value of mortality were: age, serum ureic nitrogen, calcemia, arterial oxygen pressure, plasma albumin, and hematocrit decrease after 48 hours. When the patients were grouped according to the presence of less than three, three, four or more than four of these risk factors (being, the average the cutting point) we obtained a good prognostic discriminative power since the mortality in those groups was 0, 30%, 60%, and 100%, respectively.