Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
J Biosoc Sci. 2010 Nov;42(6):705-19. doi: 10.1017/S0021932010000428.
Bangladesh represents one of the few countries in south Asia where the pace of fertility decline has been unprecedented over the last three decades. Although there has been significant reduction in fertility levels at the national level, regional variations continue to persist, especially in Sylhet and Chittagong where the total fertility rates are well above the country average. Using data from three consecutive Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) this paper assesses how fertility patterns in Sylhet and Chittagong differ from the rest of Bangladesh through a marriage cohort analysis of the parity progression ratios, and examines the factors determining the transition rates to higher parity in these two regions. Three cohorts of women are identified: those married during 1965-1974, 1975-84 and 1985-94. The results show that the probability that a woman from the recent cohort in Sylhet or Chittagong who had a third birth will have a fourth birth is nearly twice that of her counterpart in other regions. Social characteristics such as education, occupation, religion and residence have no effect on fertility in Sylhet and Chittagong. Additional period-specific analyses using the 2007 BDHS data show that women in Sylhet are considerably more likely to have a third or fourth birth sooner than those in other divisions, especially Khulna. The findings call for specific family planning policy interventions in Sylhet and Chittagong ensuring gender equity, promoting female education and delaying entry into marriage and childbearing.
孟加拉国是南亚少数几个生育率在过去三十年中前所未有下降的国家之一。尽管全国的生育率水平有显著下降，但区域差异仍在持续存在，尤其是在锡尔赫特和吉大港，其总和生育率仍远高于全国平均水平。本文利用三次连续的孟加拉国人口与健康调查（BDHS）的数据，通过对生育阶段比的婚姻队列分析，评估了锡尔赫特和吉大港的生育模式与孟加拉国其他地区的差异，并考察了决定这两个地区向更高生育阶段过渡的因素。确定了三个妇女生育队列：1965-1974 年、1975-1984 年和 1985-1994 年结婚的妇女。结果表明，最近在锡尔赫特或吉大港生育第三个孩子的妇女，其生育第四个孩子的概率几乎是其他地区妇女的两倍。在锡尔赫特和吉大港，社会特征如教育、职业、宗教和居住地点对生育率没有影响。使用 2007 年 BDHS 数据进行的额外特定时期分析表明，与其他地区相比，锡尔赫特的妇女更早生育第三胎或第四胎的可能性要大得多，尤其是在库尔纳。这些发现呼吁在锡尔赫特和吉大港采取具体的计划生育政策干预措施，确保性别平等，促进女性教育，推迟结婚和生育。
