Department of Pathology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital & National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.
J Clin Pathol. 2010 Oct;63(10):910-5. doi: 10.1136/jcp.2010.079764.
To construct a prognostic model for recurrence-free survival (RFS), progression-free survival (PFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients who have undergone transurethral resection of non-muscle-invasive (pTa/pT1) urinary bladder urothelial tumours.
1366 patients who had undergone transurethral resection of primary non-muscle-invasive urothelial tumours (pTa, 891 patients; pT1, 475 patients) confined to the bladder were retrospectively studied. Tumours were classified according to the 2004 WHO/International Society of Urologic Pathology grading system. Kaplan-Meier and stepwise Cox regression models were applied, and 200 bootstrap resamples were used to generate survival estimates and 95% CIs. A nomogram was developed that incorporated significant variables predicting survival.
RFS, PFS and CSS probabilities for non-muscle-invasive bladder urothelial tumours were calculated. Incorporating salient prognostic factors (tumour grade, pT stage, patient age, status of intravesical instillation), the model satisfactorily predicted PFS (concordance index=0.79) and CSS (concordance index=0.87).
Robust nomograms were created to predict PFS and CSS. These data provide an overall perspective of disease outcomes which may aid in developing individualised follow-up programmes.
为接受经尿道非肌肉浸润性（pTa/pT1）膀胱尿路上皮肿瘤切除术的患者构建无复发生存（RFS）、无进展生存（PFS）和癌症特异性生存（CSS）的预后模型。
回顾性研究了 1366 例接受经尿道切除原发性非肌肉浸润性尿路上皮肿瘤（pTa，891 例；pT1，475 例）的患者。肿瘤根据 2004 年世界卫生组织/国际泌尿病理学会分级系统进行分类。应用 Kaplan-Meier 和逐步 Cox 回归模型，并使用 200 次 bootstrap 重采样生成生存估计值和 95%CI。开发了一个包含预测生存的显著变量的列线图。
计算了非肌肉浸润性膀胱尿路上皮肿瘤的 RFS、PFS 和 CSS 概率。纳入显著的预后因素（肿瘤分级、pT 分期、患者年龄、膀胱内灌注状态）后，该模型可满意地预测 PFS（一致性指数=0.79）和 CSS（一致性指数=0.87）。
创建了稳健的列线图来预测 PFS 和 CSS。这些数据提供了疾病结局的整体视角，可能有助于制定个体化的随访计划。
