School of Criminology, University of Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Inj Prev. 2010 Dec;16(6):393-7. doi: 10.1136/ip.2009.025379. Epub 2010 Sep 28.
To assess the effect on collisions with injuries of a 61% reduction in the number of traffic citations issued by police officers over a 21-month period.
Using descriptive analyses as well as ARIMA intervention time-series analyses, this study estimated the impact of this reduction in citations issued for traffic violations on the monthly number of collisions with injuries.
Simple descriptive analysis reveals that the 61% reduction in the number of citations issued for traffic violations during the experimental period coincided with an increase in collisions with injuries. Results from the interrupted time-series analyses reveal that, on average, eight additional collisions with injuries occurred every month during which the number of tickets issued for traffic violations was lower than normal. As this pressure tactic was applied for 21 months, it is estimated that this situation was associated with approximately 184 additional collisions with injuries: equivalent to 239 traffic injuries (either deaths, minor or serious injuries).
In the province of Quebec, police officers are an important component of road safety policy. Issuing citations prevents drivers from adopting reckless driving habits such as speeding, running red lights and failing to fasten their seat belt.
评估在 21 个月内警察开出的交通罚单数量减少 61%对受伤事故碰撞的影响。
本研究采用描述性分析和 ARIMA 干预时间序列分析,估计了对交通违法行为开出的罚单数量减少对每月受伤事故碰撞数量的影响。
简单描述性分析表明,实验期间交通违法行为开出的罚单数量减少 61%,与受伤事故碰撞数量增加同时发生。中断时间序列分析的结果显示,在交通违法行为开出的罚单数量低于正常水平的每个月,平均每月会增加 8 起额外的受伤事故碰撞。由于这种施压策略持续了 21 个月,据估计,这种情况与大约 184 起额外的受伤事故碰撞有关:相当于 239 起交通伤害(包括死亡、轻伤或重伤)。
在魁北克省,警察是道路安全政策的一个重要组成部分。开出罚单可以防止司机养成鲁莽驾驶的习惯,如超速、闯红灯和不系安全带。