Nazif-Muñoz José Ignacio, Quesnel-Vallée Amélie, Van den Berg Axel
a McGill University , Montreal , Quebec , Canada.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2014;15 Suppl 1:S56-63. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2014.939270.
The objective of the current study is to determine the contribution of Chile's 2005 traffic law reform, police enforcement, and road investment infrastructure to the reduction of traffic fatalities and severe injuries from 2000 to 2012.
Analyses based on structural equation models were carried out using a unique database merging aggregate administrative data from several Chilean public institutions. The sample was balanced (13 regions, over 13 years; N=169). Dependent variables were rates of traffic fatality (total, drivers, passengers, and pedestrians), severe injuries, and total number of crashes per vehicle fleet. Independent variables were (1) traffic law reform, (2) police enforcement, and (3) road infrastructure investment. Oil prices, alcohol consumption, proportion of male population 15-24 years old, unemployment, years' effects and regions' effects, and lagged dependent variables were entered as control variables.
Empirical estimates from the structural equation models suggest that the enactment of the traffic law reform is significantly associated with a 7% reduction of pedestrian fatalities. This association is entirely mediated by the positive association the law had with increasing police enforcement and reducing alcohol consumption. In turn, police enforcement is significantly associated with a direct decrease in total fatalities, driver fatalities, passenger fatalities, and pedestrian fatalities by 17%, 18%, 8%, and 60%, respectively. Finally, road infrastructure investment is significantly associated with a direct reduction of 11% in pedestrian fatalities, and the number of total crashes significantly mediates the effect of road infrastructure investment on the reduction of severe injuries. Tests of sensitivity indicate these effects and their statistical significance did not vary substantively with alternative model specifications.
Results suggest that traffic law reform, police enforcement, and road infrastructure investment have complex interwoven effects that can reduce both traffic fatalities and severe injuries. Though traffic reforms are ultimately designed to change road user behaviors at large, it is also important to acknowledge that legislative changes may require institutional changes--that is, intensification of police enforcement--and be supported by road infrastructure investment, in order to effectively decrease traffic fatalities and injuries. Furthermore, depending on how road safety measures are designed, coordinated, and implemented, their effects on different types of road users vary. The case of Chile illustrates how the diffusion of road safety practices globally promoted by the World Health Organization and World Bank, particularly in 2004, can be an important influence to enhance national road safety practices.
本研究的目的是确定智利2005年交通法规改革、警察执法以及道路投资基础设施对2000年至2012年期间交通死亡人数和重伤人数减少的贡献。
基于结构方程模型的分析使用了一个独特的数据库，该数据库合并了来自智利多个公共机构的综合行政数据。样本是平衡的（13个地区，超过13年；N = 169）。因变量是交通死亡人数（总计、驾驶员、乘客和行人）、重伤人数以及每单位车辆车队的撞车总数。自变量是：（1）交通法规改革，（2）警察执法，（3）道路基础设施投资。油价、酒精消费、15至24岁男性人口比例、失业率、年份效应和地区效应以及滞后因变量作为控制变量纳入。
结构方程模型的实证估计表明，交通法规改革的颁布与行人死亡人数减少7%显著相关。这种关联完全是由该法规与加强警察执法和减少酒精消费的正相关所介导的。反过来，警察执法与总死亡人数、驾驶员死亡人数、乘客死亡人数和行人死亡人数分别直接减少17%、18%、8%和60%显著相关。最后，道路基础设施投资与行人死亡人数直接减少11%显著相关，并且撞车总数显著介导了道路基础设施投资对减少重伤人数的影响。敏感性测试表明，这些效应及其统计显著性在不同的模型设定下没有实质性变化。
结果表明，交通法规改革、警察执法和道路基础设施投资具有复杂的相互交织的效应，能够减少交通死亡人数和重伤人数。尽管交通改革最终旨在广泛改变道路使用者的行为，但同样重要的是要认识到，立法变革可能需要制度变革——即加强警察执法——并得到道路基础设施投资的支持，以便有效减少交通死亡人数和受伤人数。此外，根据道路安全措施的设计、协调和实施方式，它们对不同类型道路使用者的影响各不相同。智利的案例说明了世界卫生组织和世界银行在全球推广的道路安全实践的传播，特别是在2年，如何能够对加强国家道路安全实践产生重要影响。
